Neither Obama nor McCain’s answers to the Russia situation make me happy. Neither of them seem to understand that marginalizing Russia, and especially Putin, is a terrible idea that will rear its ugly head. Just three years ago, people still thought nothing of Russia — a deadened, once super-power nation with no leg to stand on. Now, they’re a force to be reckoned with and that force will only increase. As Philip Longworth put it in his book Russia: The Once and Future Empire, “Through the centuries, Russia has swung sharply between successful expansionism, catastrophic collapse, and spectacular recovery.” And it always recovers. When Russia comes back to its full strength, we want to be allied with them, and certainly not against them.

Let’s look at the two questions that were asked on Tuesday’s debate that were directly related to Russia and both candidates’ answers (my own emphasis added for discussion after the quote).

Question: How can we apply pressure to Russia for humanitarian issues in an effective manner without starting another Cold War?

McCain: “First of all, as I say, I don’t think that — we’re not going to have another Cold War with Russia.

But have no doubt that Russia’s behavior is certainly outside the norms of behavior that we would expect for nations which are very wealthy, as Russia has become, because of their petro dollars.

Now, long ago, I warned about Vladimir Putin. I said I looked into his eyes and saw three letters, a K, a G and a B. He has surrounded himself with former KGB apparatchiks. He has gradually repressed most of the liberties that we would expect for nations to observe, and he has exhibited most aggressive behavior, obviously, in Georgia.

I said before, watch Ukraine. Ukraine, right now, is in the sights of Vladimir Putin, those that want to reassemble the old Soviet Union.

We’ve got to show moral support for Georgia. [...] We’ve got to advocate for their membership in NATO.

We have to make the Russians understand that there are penalties for these this kind of behavior, this kind of naked aggression into Georgia, a tiny country and a tiny democracy.

And so, of course we want to bring international pressures to bear on Russia in hopes that that will modify and eventually change their behavior. Now, the G-8 is one of those, but there are many others.

But the Russians must understand that these kinds of actions and activities are not acceptable and hopefully we will use the leverage, economic, diplomatic and others united with our allies, with our allies and friends in Europe who are equally disturbed as we are about their recent behaviors.”

Obama: “Well, the resurgence of Russia is one of the central issues that we’re going to have to deal with in the next presidency. And for the most part I agree with Senator McCain on many of the steps that have to be taken.

But we can’t just provide moral support. We’ve got to provide moral support to the Poles and Estonia and Latvia and all of the nations that were former Soviet satellites. But we’ve also got to provide them with financial and concrete assistance to help rebuild their economies. Georgia in particular is now on the brink of enormous economic challenges. And some say that that’s what Putin intended in the first place.

The other thing we have to do, though, is we’ve got to see around the corners. We’ve got to anticipate some of these problems ahead of time. You know, back in April, I put out a statement saying that the situation in Georgia was unsustainable because you had Russian peacekeepers in these territories that were under dispute.

And you knew that if the Russians themselves were trying to obtain some of these territories or push back against Georgia, that that was not a stable situation. So part of the job of the next commander-in-chief, in keeping all of you safe, is making sure that we can see some of the 21st Century challenges and anticipate them before they happen.

We haven’t been doing enough of that. We tend to be reactive. That’s what we’ve been doing over the last eight years and that has actually made us more safe. That’s part of what happened in Afghanistan, where we rushed into Iraq and Senator McCain and President Bush suggested that it wasn’t that important to catch bin Laden right now and that we could muddle through, and that has cost us dearly.

We’ve got to be much more strategic if we’re going to be able to deal with all of the challenges that we face out there.

And one last point I want to make about Russia. Energy is going to be key in dealing with Russia. If we can reduce our energy consumption, that reduces the amount of petro dollars that they have to make mischief around the world. That will strengthen us and weaken them when it comes to issues like Georgia.”

McCain: Russia’s behavior is certainly outside the norms of behavior that we would expect for nations which are very wealthy, as Russia has become.
I really disagree with both candidates here. Russia, in my opinion, acted within its rights. If anyone is to be blamed and denigrated for what transpired in Georgia, it is the Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili. He was the one who launched a ground and air based military attack on South Ossetia, a region of Georgia heavily populated with Russian nationals, and a region that strongly wants to rejoin Russia.

Now, let’s imagine if this were the US (ignoring obvious parallels between US-Iraq and Russia-Georgia) and there was a region filled with US citizens, indeed an overwhelming majority of the residents were American, what would we do? Fight back, obviously.

In short, I don’t think they acted outside of the “norms of behavior” at all. They acted within their rights to defend their nationals, as far as I am concerned.

McCain: Now, long ago, I warned about Vladimir Putin. I said I looked into his eyes and saw three letters, a K, a G and a B. [...] He has gradually repressed most of the liberties that we would expect for nations to observe.
Look. The Russians love Putin. The Russians have almost always loved a strong, nearly-dictatorial leader. And when they tire of it, they dethrone them. I think it’s ridiculous for us to assume that what works and makes sense for us in America has to make sense everywhere else. We forget that we are a relatively new country and culture, and that our culture is based upon the idea of freedoms, liberties and ability to stand against our government. Russian culture, as a whole, is not that way. We should not punish them for that, and instead should let them sort the whole thing out amongst themselves.

McCain: We have to make the Russians understand that there are penalties for these this kind of behavior, this kind of naked aggression into Georgia, a tiny country and a tiny democracy.
What were our penalties for going into Iraq as a kind of “naked aggression?” Regardless, do we defend all tiny countries and tiny democracies? Are we the world’s “freedom force”, defending and instating freedom in any and all countries that will and will not let us? But, more than that, his tone upsets me. “We have to make the Russians understand“. That is exactly the kind of tone that does not go over well with the likes of Putin and his men. Marginalizing him and speaking of him in condescending tones does nothing more than offend his nationalism, and there is little worse than a Russia with a wounded ego.

Obama: But we’ve also got to provide them with financial and concrete assistance to help rebuild their economies. Georgia in particular is now on the brink of enormous economic challenges. And some say that that’s what Putin intended in the first place.
Nu-huh. I vote we stay the hell out of that region. Meddling in any sense of the word will do nothing for us. We need to stay as neutral as possible when it comes to Eastern Europe. Make no mistake that Putin is a smart man. His propaganda machine is already pumping against the US, especially when we intervene in their territory. We do not want to add more fuel to the fire as Russia gains more and more power over the next months and years.

Question: This requires only a yes or a no. Ronald Reagan famously said that the Soviet Union was the evil empire. Do you think that Russia under Vladimir Putin is an evil empire?

Obama: “I think they’ve engaged in an evil behavior and I think that it is important that we understand they’re not the old Soviet Union but they still have nationalist impulses that I think are very dangerous.”
McCain: “Maybe. Depends on how we respond to Russia and it depends on a lot of things. If I say yes, then that means that we’re reigniting the old Cold War. If I say no, it ignores their behavior.

Obviously energy is going to be a big, big factor. And Georgia and Ukraine are both major gateways of energy into Europe. And that’s one of the reasons why it’s in our interest.

But the Russians, I think we can deal with them but they’ve got to understand that they’re facing a very firm and determined United States of America that will defend our interests and that of other countries in the world.“

Obama: I think that it is important that we understand they’re not the old Soviet Union but they still have nationalist impulses that I think are very dangerous. and McCain: They’ve got to understand that they’re facing a very firm and determined United States of America that will defend our interests and that of other countries in the world.
I really believe they are only dangerous to us if we continue to respond to them in the way that we have with Georgia. If we continue to chide them as if they are a child and have no right to defend their own people and their own interests, indeed, if don’t quickly begin to treat them as absolutely nothing less than an equal with equal rights to defend their interests, then and only then do we embark on dangerous territory.

The one thing that Obama said that I agree with is that “the resurgence of Russia is one of the central issues that we’re going to have to deal with in the next presidency” and that “The other thing we have to do, though, is we’ve got to see around the corners. We’ve got to anticipate some of these problems ahead of time.” However, he got the follow-ups wrong. The approach of both candidates to dealing with the resurgent Russia scares me. Do we appease them? No. But stepping on their toes and constantly pushing them to the side as if they’re incapable of fighting back and have no rights to defend their own interests? That is what most certainly will get us in trouble if we’re not terribly, terribly careful.